Full explanation
Route: Odesa Port / Chornomorsk / Pivdenniy → coastal waters of Ukraine and Romania → Bosphorus → Mediterranean. Throughput 70–85 ships/month in 2025 (vs. 130+ pre-war). Key April 2026 freight rates: Panamax (50–80k t) USD 25–32/t to the Mediterranean; Handymax (30–50k t) USD 32–42/t. Constraint: 15–25 vessels per year sustain drone or missile damage (2024–2025), priced in via Breakwave Advisors Dry Index + Lloyd's of London war-risk premium. Alternative export routes: Danube ports (Izmail 8.5 Mt/yr, Reni 8 Mt/yr, Ust-Dunaisk 4 Mt/yr — down 45.9% in 2024 vs. 2023), rail to Polish terminals, road to Romanian. As of January 2026 the Black Sea Corridor moves ~87% of Ukrainian grain exports.