Full explanation
CBAM does not apply directly to Ukrainian exporters (Ukraine is outside the EU ETS), but it creates secondary pressure on domestic nitrogen-fertilizer prices: EU imports (Yara from Norway/Netherlands, Borealis from Austria, Grupa Azoty from Poland) incur CBAM at the EU-third-country re-export border → price on the Ukrainian market rises 3–12% depending on import share. OSTCHEM (Rivneazot, Cherkasy Azot) gains a domestic competitive advantage but loses EU export markets without verified low-carbon Scope 1+2 accounting. Practical signal for the farmer: post-2028, urea and ammonium nitrate from EU imports will inflate faster than Ukrainian production — lock prices via forwards or switch to 100% domestic supply. Source: fertilizer-kb.ts CBAM block + EU Reg 2023/956 Annex I.