Full explanation
Formula: Basis = Cash Price − Futures Price. April 2026 example: MATIF May wheat USD 255/t, CPT Black Sea port USD 222/t → basis −USD 33/t. Basis components: (1) LOGISTICS Ukraine to European tender market (freight + insurance + port handling) ~−USD 25/t, (2) WAR-RISK PREMIUM — 0.5–0.8% of CIF or −USD 5–10/t, (3) QUALITY, (4) SEASONAL temporary premium/discount. Historical range Ukraine wheat basis vs MATIF: 2022 (war) −80 to −120 USD/t, 2023 −50 to −70, 2024–2025 −30 to −45, 2026 −25 to −40. Basis is central to hedge profitability — even with correctly placed futures, a sudden basis widening can erode hedge effectiveness by 10–30%. Ukrainian exporters need to track weekly bulletins from Breakwave Advisors, USDA FAS Ukraine, APK-Inform.